Today, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the United States Of America created 431,000 jobs in March. We also had 95,000 positive revisions, and although this was a slight miss of estimates, it continues the solid trend of good job reports in 2022. On another note, I raised my third recession red flag, since the inverted yield curve happened this week. I’ll talk about jobs first and then get to the recession red flag model as three of the six flags are up now.
The U.S unemployment rate stands at 3.6%, and we are getting closer and closer to my September 2022 forecast of getting all the jobs back that we lost due to COVID-19. If you break it down to women over 20, the unemployment rate is 3.3%. For men over the age of 20, it’s down to 3.4%. As you can see below from the unemployment rate chart, the job recovery was much faster than after the great recession of 2008.