In this HW+ Slack QA, Lead Analyst Logan Mohtashami gives the inside scoop on where rates are headed, whether or not he has updates to his 2022 forecast and more.
As a member of HW+, you can us join for regular 30-minute Slack QAs, where we invite the HW Media newsroom to break down the hottest topics in the industry. Tune in for our next event with Mohtashami happening April 6th at 12 CT in the #articlediscussion channel.
The QA was hosted in the HW+ Slack channel, which is exclusively available to members. To get access to the next QA, you can join HW+ here.
The following QA has been lightly edited for length and clarity. This QA was originally hosted on March 23rd.
HousingWire: To begin, how has your 2022 forecast changed so far? What has remained the same?
Logan Mohtashami: One of the things about my work is that I never revise my forecast every month like some economists do because I tend to forecast ranges in data rather than adjust the estimates based on an event. For example, my home price growth forecast for 2022 was between 5.2% – 6.7%; at first, that looked like it was too small.
However, since I had the possibility of the 10-year yield getting to 2.42% and 4% plus mortgage rates, I accounted for that in the range. The one thing that has happened in 2022 that has been worse is that national inventory levels have worsened in 2022 to start the year. Due to this reality, I have downgraded the housing market from unhealthy housing to a savagely unhealthy housing market.